Newport County 1-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 11 Feb 2025

Newport County
1-0 HT 0-0
Carlisle United
📅11/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Newport County vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.55
6+ Goals
11%
14.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.09
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
9%
5.89
X/2
9%
5.37
X/X
13%
4.49
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
20%
3.55
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
1.32/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.09
+12% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
232 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 66%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
21.4 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Newport County vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
222 Passes 198
62% Pass Accuracy 61%
14 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
24.09.2022 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
15.03.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.10.2021 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 2-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
13.04.2021 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
03.11.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-2 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 1-0 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-0
AWAY Carlisle United
0.58 xG 1.76
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 10
226 Passes 365
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Newport County made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Newport County had 40% of the ball to Carlisle United's 60%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.58 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carlisle United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Newport County and 1.50 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Carlisle United?

Newport County 1-0 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Newport County 36%, draw 28%, Carlisle United 36%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ BTTS Yes
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