Manchester City 2-3 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Feb 2025

Manchester City
2-3 HT 1-0
Real Madrid
📅11/02/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.33
Over Pick
62%
1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.75
2-3
35%
1.92
4-5
33%
2.7
6+
14%
7.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.57
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
14%
4.95
X/2
11%
7.71
X/X
13%
5.83
2/1 ✗
8%
20.7
2/2
8%
5.06
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Manchester City v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 31%
-56% / -56% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
0.45/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.90
-97% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
13.0 Crosses 10.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Real Madrid
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.84 xG 1.14
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
605 Passes 373
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
38 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.04.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 1-1 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
09.04.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-3 HT 2-1 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
17.05.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-0 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
09.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
04.05.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
26.04.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 4-3 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP

Manchester City 2-3 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
2-3
AWAY Real Madrid
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
450 Passes 375
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
REVIEW Manchester City vs Real Madrid
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Real Madrid came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Manchester City 3-2 on the road. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

A gentle 49% lean on Manchester City didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Manchester City had 54% of the ball to Real Madrid's 46%, shots finished 11-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Manchester City and 1.83 for Real Madrid.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Result & Final Score

Manchester City 2-3 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 49%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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