Karabağ 5-0 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 11 Feb 2025

📅11/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.22
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
77%
-13.1pp
19%
Draw
14%
+4.8pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
2.73/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.18
+36% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
363 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sebail FK
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
06.02.2025 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
23.11.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
14.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
12.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-1 HT 2-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ swept aside Sebail FK 5-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Karabağ and 0.83 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Sebail FK?

Karabağ 5-0 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 64%, draw 19%, Sebail FK 17%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →