Liverpool 0-1 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.72
6+ Goals
12%
7.17
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.68 — our 25% vs market 15.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.13
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.53
X/2
11%
6.42
X/X
14%
5.74
2/1
6%
22.55
2/2
11%
3.94
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
2.21/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.43
+27% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 81%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
21.4 Crosses 14.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
2W-0D-1L
AWAY PSG
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 7
355 Passes 459
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.03.2025 PSG PSG 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP
28.11.2018 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP
18.09.2018 Liverpool Liverpool 3-2 HT 2-1 PSG PSG ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
0-1
AWAY PSG
1.51 xG 2.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 8
12 Corners 6
426 Passes 573
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
46 Box Touches 33
37 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG edged past Liverpool 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Liverpool had 46% of the ball to PSG's 54%, shots finished 19-21, expected goals 1.51 to 2.63.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Liverpool and 1.33 for PSG.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs PSG?

Liverpool 0-1 PSG in the Champions League on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 43%, draw 27%, PSG 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP More Champions League
11 Mar 2025
20:45 Barcelona vs Benfica Analysis →
23:00 Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
23:00 Inter vs Feyenoord Analysis →