Barcelona 3-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Mar 2025

Barcelona
3-1 HT 3-1
Benfica
📅11/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Champions League – 2024/2025

Barcelona vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.47
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.14
Over 2.5
61%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.28
2-3 Goals
35%
2.24
4-5 Goals
30%
2.36
6+ Goals
15%
4.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
15%
4.39
X/2
11%
12.6
X/X
8%
8.34
2/1
9%
16.85
2/2
10%
8.51
2/X
5%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-9.7pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.5pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+8.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
28%
+10.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
72%
-10.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.2pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barcelona v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
2.02/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.43
+8% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
479 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 81%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
15.9 Crosses 11.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Barcelona vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Benfica
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.66 xG 1.99
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
507 Passes 274
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.03.2025 Benfica Benfica 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
21.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 4-5 HT 3-1 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
23.11.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
29.09.2021 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
05.12.2012 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
02.10.2012 Benfica Benfica 0-2 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP

Barcelona 3-1 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
3-1
AWAY Benfica
2.52 xG 0.76
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
580 Passes 265
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona got the better of Benfica 3-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Barcelona had 65% of the ball to Benfica's 35%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.52 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Barcelona and 1.17 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Benfica?

Barcelona 3-1 Benfica in the Champions League on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 54%, draw 20%, Benfica 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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