Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.09
6+ Goals
14%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.97
1/2
7%
24.7
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.08
X/2
14%
5.43
X/X
12%
5.13
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
9%
3.34
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · X/1 at 6.08 — our 19% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
35%
+10.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
30%
Away Win
39%
-9.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.8pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 43%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +8%
1.70/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.28
+38% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
16.2 Crosses 15.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 1.28
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
339 Passes 498
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2025 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen ŞMP
15.02.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
03.12.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
28.09.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
10.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
15.09.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
0-2
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.45 xG 2.27
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 6
274 Passes 259
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 29
39 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 53% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 47%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.45 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.00 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih?

Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Bayern Münih in the Champions League on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 46%, draw 24%, Bayern Münih 30%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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