Al Hilal Riyadh 4-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 11 Mar 2025

Al Hilal Riyadh
4-0 HT 2-0
Pakhtakor Tashkent
📅11/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
AFC Sampiyonlar League – 2024/2025

Al Hilal Riyadh vs Pakhtakor Tashkent Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.22
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.33
Over 2.5
49%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
2.68
6+ Goals
10%
7.17
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.52 — our 27% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.36
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
26.5
X/1
27%
3.63
X/2
8%
25.0
X/X
9%
8.94
2/1
8%
23.85
2/2
4%
23.0
2/X
6%
31.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
77%
-12.3pp
20%
Draw
15%
+4.5pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Hilal Riyadh v Pakhtakor Tashkent — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
2.12/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.99
+0% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +112%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
38.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.5 Crosses 22.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 3.0

Al Hilal Riyadh vs Pakhtakor Tashkent Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.56 xG 1.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
409 Passes 315
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.03.2025 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
17.09.2020 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
14.09.2020 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 HT 1-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
02.03.2016 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 4-1 HT 0-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
24.02.2016 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-2 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP

Al Hilal Riyadh 4-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
4-0
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent
3.80 xG 0.76
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
500 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
43 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Pakhtakor Tashkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh swept aside Pakhtakor Tashkent 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Hilal Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 65% of the ball to Pakhtakor Tashkent's 35%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 3.80 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Al Hilal Riyadh and 1.00 for Pakhtakor Tashkent.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

Al Hilal Riyadh 4-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 64%, draw 20%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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