Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Saarbrücken — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.82
Over 2.5
55%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
30%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
15.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 30% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.04
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
14%
4.99
X/2
7%
6.78
X/X
16%
4.5
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
17%
4.9
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
51%
-6.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
49%
+6.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.1pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.39/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.35
-15% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
25.8 Crosses 13.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Saarbrücken
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
310 Passes 223
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
25.02.2024 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 1-1 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
29.09.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-6 HT 1-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
20.02.2013 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-4 HT 1-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
03.08.2012 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-2 HT 2-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
10.03.2012 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-4 HT 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
3-1
AWAY Saarbrücken
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
307 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Saarbrücken
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld got the better of Saarbrücken 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arminia Bielefeld as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 48% of the ball to Saarbrücken's 52%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 2.17 for Saarbrücken.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Saarbrücken?

Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Saarbrücken in the Germany - 3rd Division on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Saarbrücken?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 43%, draw 27%, Saarbrücken 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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