Defensa y Justicia 0-0 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.54
Over
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2.27
2-3
36%
1.75
4-5
17%
4.89
6+
8%
29.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.27 — our 39% vs market 36.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.7
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
13%
4.26
X/2
8%
8.02
X/X
15%
3.92
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
11%
7.07
2/X
7%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.0pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 26%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+89% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensa y Justicia
0-0
AWAY Vitoria
0.57 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
361 Passes 342
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Defensa y Justicia vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensa y Justicia and Vitoria fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Defensa y Justicia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Defensa y Justicia had 52% of the ball to Vitoria's 48%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.57 to 0.95.

What was the final score of Defensa y Justicia vs Vitoria?

Defensa y Justicia 0-0 Vitoria in the Copa Sudamericana on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensa y Justicia vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensa y Justicia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Defensa y Justicia 46%, draw 29%, Vitoria 25%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Defensa y Justicia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Defensa y Justicia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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