Uni. Catolica 3-1 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.45
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
23%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
55%
1.91
Over
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No Pick
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.26
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
20%
3.35
6+
10%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.77
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
17.35
X/1
17%
3.89
X/2
12%
14.35
X/X
11%
5.68
2/1
8%
24.65
2/2
7%
12.8
2/X
7%
20.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-13.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
13%
+10.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.2pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 16%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-65% / +108% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
3-1
AWAY Cerro Largo
1.57 xG 0.39
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
434 Passes 129
86% Pass Accuracy 60%
29 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica saw off Cerro Largo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 69% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 31%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.57 to 0.39.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs Cerro Largo?

Uni. Catolica 3-1 Cerro Largo in the Copa Sudamericana on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 52%, draw 25%, Cerro Largo 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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