Martigues 1-4 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.4
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
57%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.56
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
11.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
22.9
1/X
7%
19.6
X/1
5%
13.0
X/2
20%
3.92
X/X
7%
5.98
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
28%
1.82
2/X
9%
17.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.9 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
15%
+3.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
58%
Away Win
64%
-6.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.0pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 69%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.78/2.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/0.99
-47% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 81%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
21.0 Crosses 20.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Metz
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 6.00
0.66 xG 4.40
32% Ball Possession 68%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 5
233 Passes 595
76% Pass Accuracy 91%
11 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.09.2024 Metz Metz 6-0 HT 3-0 Martigues Martigues FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Martigues
1-4
AWAY Metz
1.21 xG 3.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 5
344 Passes 424
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metz ran out comfortable winners over Martigues 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Metz as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Martigues had 46% of the ball to Metz's 54%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.21 to 3.22.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Metz?

Martigues 1-4 Metz in the France - Ligue 2 on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Martigues 19%, draw 24%, Metz 58%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Metz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Metz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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