Rodez 2-2 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 11 Apr 2025

Rodez
2-2 HT 0-0
Caen
📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.56
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
8%
7.95
X/X
13%
5.31
2/1
11%
22.9
2/2
10%
5.81
2/X
5%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rodez EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -22%
1.49/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.35
+29% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
28.4 Crosses 19.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rodez
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Caen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.40 xG 1.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
279 Passes 418
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.11.2024 Caen Caen 3-3 HT 1-2 Rodez Rodez FR2
13.04.2024 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 1-0 Rodez Rodez FR2
07.10.2023 Rodez Rodez 5-3 HT 2-3 Caen Caen FR2
11.03.2023 Rodez Rodez 3-2 HT 2-1 Caen Caen FR2
22.10.2022 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 0-0 Rodez Rodez FR2
14.05.2022 Rodez Rodez 2-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
POST-MATCH Rodez vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rodez and Caen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rodez at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rodez had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rodez and 1.83 for Caen.

What was the final score of Rodez vs Caen?

Rodez 2-2 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rodez vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rodez win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Rodez 48%, draw 26%, Caen 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rodez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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