Slaven Belupo 2-0 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.71
Over
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.68
2-3
42%
1.73
4-5
20%
4.02
6+
9%
19.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-10.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.7pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.69/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.35
+4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 76%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
27.7 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sibenik
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.08 xG 1.18
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
269 Passes 256
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Sibenik Sibenik 1-1 HT 0-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
16.11.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 1-2 HT 0-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIRK
25.10.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-2 HT 1-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
09.08.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 2-0 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
25.04.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 3-1 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
17.02.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
2-0
AWAY Sibenik
1.90 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
395 Passes 245
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo saw off Sibenik 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Slaven Belupo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 58% of the ball to Sibenik's 42%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.90 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sibenik led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.67 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Sibenik?

Slaven Belupo 2-0 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 47%, draw 26%, Sibenik 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slaven Belupo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Slaven Belupo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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