FC Eindhoven 1-0 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.31
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
10%
7.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.31 — our 25% vs market 17.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.87
1/2
9%
22.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
13%
7.39
X/2
12%
5.16
X/X
9%
5.54
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
22%
2.79
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.21/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.16
-8% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 80%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.2 Crosses 21.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
2W-0D-4L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.02 xG 1.41
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
272 Passes 358
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.09.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
19.01.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
27.10.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
24.02.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-4 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.12.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
13.05.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 3-1 HT 3-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
1-0
AWAY De Graafschap
1.86 xG 1.32
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
250 Passes 417
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 44
14 Crosses 42
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Eindhoven nicked a narrow win over De Graafschap 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 39% of the ball to De Graafschap's 61%, shots finished 15-22, expected goals 1.86 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.83 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?

FC Eindhoven 1-0 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 32%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap)
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