Roda 1-0 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Apr 2025

Roda
1-0 HT 0-0
Emmen
📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.49
No
52%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.72
6+ Goals
11%
7.19
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.61 — our 27% vs market 16.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.5
1/2
5%
24.2
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
9%
5.98
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.11
X/X
10%
5.74
2/1
6%
24.2
2/2
14%
3.62
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · X/2 at 6.11 — our 17% vs market 12.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
+0.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
63%
-15.1pp
52%
BTTS No
37%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.44/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.27
+2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 80%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.8 Crosses 18.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Emmen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.24
47% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
316 Passes 367
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2024 Emmen Emmen 1-3 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2
16.02.2024 Roda Roda 3-2 HT 1-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
15.12.2023 Emmen Emmen 0-1 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2
22.04.2022 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
23.10.2021 Roda Roda 1-2 HT 1-2 Emmen Emmen HOL2
25.05.2015 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 2-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
1-0
AWAY Emmen
0.37 xG 0.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
371 Passes 351
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roda vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda edged past Emmen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and on the day Roda made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Roda had 51% of the ball to Emmen's 49%, shots finished 5-7, expected goals 0.37 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Roda and 1.50 for Emmen.

What was the final score of Roda vs Emmen?

Roda 1-0 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Roda 39%, draw 24%, Emmen 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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