Roda 3-2 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Feb 2024

Roda
3-2 HT 1-1
Emmen
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Roda vs Emmen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.91
6+ Goals
12%
8.64
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 26% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.33
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.37
X/2
7%
8.37
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
11%
5.77
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roda v Emmen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.88/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.37
+21% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
20.6 Crosses 11.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Roda vs Emmen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Emmen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
323 Passes 387
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.12.2023 Emmen Emmen 0-1 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2
22.04.2022 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
23.10.2021 Roda Roda 1-2 HT 1-2 Emmen Emmen HOL2
25.05.2015 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 2-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
22.05.2015 Emmen Emmen 0-1 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2
08.05.2015 Roda Roda 1-3 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2

Roda 3-2 Emmen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
3-2
AWAY Emmen
2.24 xG 0.84
61% Ball Possession 39%
22 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
392 Passes 212
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
35 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roda vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda edged past Emmen 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Roda had 61% of the ball to Emmen's 39%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.24 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roda's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Roda and 1.50 for Emmen.

What was the final score of Roda vs Emmen?

Roda 3-2 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Roda 50%, draw 26%, Emmen 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Under 2.5
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