FC Oss 2-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Feb 2024

📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.71
6+ Goals
13%
7.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.29
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.6
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
9%
6.9
X/2
15%
5.02
X/X
7%
5.65
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
16%
2.76
2/X
11%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.6 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Oss EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
0.99/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.57
+1% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -24%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 82%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
16.6 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Oss
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ajax II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.75 xG 1.41
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
234 Passes 595
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
06.03.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
09.09.2022 FC Oss FC Oss 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
04.04.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 4-1 HT 3-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
10.12.2021 FC Oss FC Oss 1-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
09.04.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Oss
2-1
AWAY Ajax II
0.31 xG 0.67
33% Ball Possession 67%
4 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
205 Passes 508
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Oss vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Oss nicked a narrow win over Ajax II 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax II at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FC Oss had 33% of the ball to Ajax II's 67%, shots finished 4-8, expected goals 0.31 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Oss and 1.33 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of FC Oss vs Ajax II?

FC Oss 2-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Oss vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Oss 33%, draw 26%, Ajax II 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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