Dordrecht 1-0 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Feb 2024

Dordrecht
1-0 HT 0-0
VVV-Venlo
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.41
No
46%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.7
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.58
6+ Goals
13%
5.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.68
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
11%
5.03
X/2
9%
7.01
X/X
10%
6.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.75
2/2
17%
4.22
2/X
9%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.75 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.2pp
46%
BTTS No
33%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dordrecht v VVV-Venlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +33%
1.32/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.25
-3% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +58%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
19.8 Crosses 17.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3

Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dordrecht
2W-0D-4L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.66 xG 1.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 9
288 Passes 328
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.12.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-1 HT 1-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
17.02.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-2 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
14.10.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
30.01.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-2 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
05.09.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
17.03.2017 Dordrecht Dordrecht 5-2 HT 2-2 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2

Dordrecht 1-0 VVV-Venlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dordrecht
1-0
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.22 xG 0.34
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
322 Passes 149
77% Pass Accuracy 62%
25 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dordrecht squeezed past VVV-Venlo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dordrecht as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dordrecht had 64% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 36%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.22 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dordrecht and 2.00 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo?

Dordrecht 1-0 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dordrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Dordrecht 41%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dordrecht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dordrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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