Helmond Sport 3-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Feb 2024

Helmond Sport
3-1 HT 2-1
De Graafschap
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
44%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 26% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.73
1/2
7%
22.05
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
10%
7.22
X/2
14%
4.77
X/X
14%
5.37
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
22%
2.65
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
44%
Away Win
46%
-2.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Helmond Sport v De Graafschap — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.31/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.00
+7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +30%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.5 Crosses 20.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
1W-1D-4L
AWAY De Graafschap
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.49 xG 1.48
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
269 Passes 348
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.09.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
06.03.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.11.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-2 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
22.04.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-4 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
10.12.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.05.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2

Helmond Sport 3-1 De Graafschap — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
3-1
AWAY De Graafschap
1.30 xG 1.04
33% Ball Possession 67%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 8
207 Passes 499
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 33
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport beat De Graafschap 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 33% of the ball to De Graafschap's 67%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.30 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.67 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

Helmond Sport 3-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 30%, draw 27%, De Graafschap 44%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (De Graafschap) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5
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