Al Ahli 0-1 Umm Salal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
7.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.26/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.42
-28% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
443 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
16.1 Crosses 13.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Umm Salal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.19
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
426 Passes 244
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 0-3 HT 0-3 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
29.02.2024 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-2 HT 1-2 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
02.01.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
15.10.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-1 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KATYK
23.09.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
29.01.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-1 HT 2-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
POST-MATCH Al Ahli vs Umm Salal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umm Salal nicked a narrow win over Al Ahli 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahli at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Umm Salal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Ahli and 1.50 for Umm Salal.

What was the final score of Al Ahli vs Umm Salal?

Al Ahli 0-1 Umm Salal in the Qatar League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli vs Umm Salal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli 45%, draw 24%, Umm Salal 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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