MTK Budapest 1-2 Paksi SE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.29
Over
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.55
2-3
40%
1.89
4-5
25%
2.73
6+
12%
7.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.0pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.85/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.59
+17% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
14.8 Crosses 23.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Paksi SE
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.90 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
397 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
07.12.2024 Paksi SE Paksi SE 4-2 HT 1-2 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
03.12.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 3-1 HT 1-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
03.03.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-2 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
05.11.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-0 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
28.07.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
16.04.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 4-0 HT 3-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
1-2
AWAY Paksi SE
1.10 xG 2.98
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
389 Passes 312
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 43
25 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE edged past MTK Budapest 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was MTK Budapest at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 54% of the ball to Paksi SE's 46%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.10 to 2.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paksi SE's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.00 for Paksi SE.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE?

MTK Budapest 1-2 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 42%, draw 26%, Paksi SE 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MTK Budapest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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