MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
MTK Budapest v Paksi SE — Team-Based Signals
MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
MTK Budapest
MAC
1-1
HT 0-0
Paksi SE
MAC
4-0
HT 3-0
MTK Budapest
MAC
MTK Budapest 1-2 Paksi SE — Actual Match Statistics
Paksi SE edged past MTK Budapest 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was MTK Budapest at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.
On the day, MTK Budapest had 54% of the ball to Paksi SE's 46%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.10 to 2.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paksi SE's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.00 for Paksi SE.
What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE?
MTK Budapest 1-2 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE?
Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 42%, draw 26%, Paksi SE 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MTK Budapest) went the other way.