Farense 2-1 Sporting CP II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.71
Over
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.68
2-3
40%
1.7
4-5
21%
3.86
6+
10%
18.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-7.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+7.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP II EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +3%
1.28/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.22
-28% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +76%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
243 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.3 Crosses 10.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Sporting CP II
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
3.41 xG 1.57
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
385 Passes 248
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Crosses 2
3 Yellow Cards 0
30.11.2025 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-1 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR2
22.08.2015 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR2
25.01.2015 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 5-3 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR2
10.08.2014 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR2
13.04.2014 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-3 HT 2-2 Farense Farense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
2-1
AWAY Sporting CP II
1.49 xG 0.27
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 7
162 Passes 449
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Farense vs Sporting CP II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense squeezed past Sporting CP II 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Farense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Farense had 32% of the ball to Sporting CP II's 68%, shots finished 6-7, expected goals 1.49 to 0.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Farense's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting CP II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Farense and 2.40 for Sporting CP II.

What was the final score of Farense vs Sporting CP II?

Farense 2-1 Sporting CP II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Sporting CP II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Farense 37%, draw 28%, Sporting CP II 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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