Penafiel 4-3 Academico Viseu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.64
Over
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.51
2-3
41%
1.7
4-5
19%
4.16
6+
10%
21.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Academico Viseu EU Bookmakers 45%
+10% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.22/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.38
-1% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
235 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.6 Crosses 17.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Academico Viseu
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
240 Passes 287
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2025 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 2-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
15.03.2025 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
26.10.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 0-2 HT 0-0 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu POR2
10.02.2024 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
02.09.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu POR2
07.05.2023 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
4-3
AWAY Academico Viseu
2.49 xG 2.46
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
138 Passes 297
65% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Crosses 23
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Academico Viseu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel squeezed past Academico Viseu 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Academico Viseu at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penafiel had 35% of the ball to Academico Viseu's 65%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.49 to 2.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Academico Viseu led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Penafiel and 1.00 for Academico Viseu.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Academico Viseu?

Penafiel 4-3 Academico Viseu in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Academico Viseu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Academico Viseu win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 29%, draw 27%, Academico Viseu 44%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Academico Viseu), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Academico Viseu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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