St. Mirren 0-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 11 May 2024

St. Mirren
0-1 HT 0-1
Kilmarnock
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2023/2024

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.81
6+ Goals
9%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.49
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.98
X/2
8%
6.15
X/X
12%
3.67
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
16%
4.72
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+1.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Mirren v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.31/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.21
-7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
285 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 68%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
28.2 Crosses 22.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.59 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
194 Passes 244
60% Pass Accuracy 64%
16 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 5-2 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.12.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
30.09.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
22.04.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-2 HT 0-2 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.01.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
15.10.2022 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP

St. Mirren 0-1 Kilmarnock — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
0-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.84 xG 1.44
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
308 Passes 155
71% Pass Accuracy 57%
24 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock squeezed past St. Mirren 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Kilmarnock found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, St. Mirren had 62% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 38%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.84 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for St. Mirren and 1.50 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock?

St. Mirren 0-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 40%, draw 29%, Kilmarnock 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (St. Mirren) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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