Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 Ulm 1846 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 11 May 2024

Borussia Dortmund II
1-2 HT 0-2
Ulm 1846
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Borussia Dortmund II vs Ulm 1846 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.42
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
7%
6.45
X/2 EV+ ✗
21%
4.84
X/X
17%
5.11
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
15%
2.98
2/X
4%
13.4
Value flag · X/2 at 4.84 — our 21% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.3pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund II v Ulm 1846 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.34/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+4% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0

Borussia Dortmund II vs Ulm 1846 Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Ulm 1846
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3

Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 Ulm 1846 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
1-2
AWAY Ulm 1846
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 squeezed past Borussia Dortmund II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ulm 1846 as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 43% of the ball to Ulm 1846's 57%, shots finished 6-15.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Ulm 1846?

Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 Ulm 1846 in the Germany - 3rd Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Ulm 1846?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 29%, draw 30%, Ulm 1846 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ulm 1846), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ulm 1846) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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