Ingolstadt 6-1 Lübeck — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
9%
7.14
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.06 — our 28% vs market 15.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.79
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.75
X/1
19%
3.82
X/2
8%
12.65
X/X
13%
6.88
2/1
9%
20.1
2/2
9%
9.0
2/X
4%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-12.8pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.2pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lübeck EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.42/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.64
-25% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.6 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Lübeck
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Lübeck Lübeck 0-4 HT 0-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
21.04.2021 Lübeck Lübeck 1-1 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
05.12.2020 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Lübeck Lübeck AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
6-1
AWAY Lübeck
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Lübeck
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt ran out comfortable winners over Lübeck 6-1. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ingolstadt as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 54% of the ball to Lübeck's 46%, shots finished 14-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ingolstadt and 0.67 for Lübeck.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Lübeck?

Ingolstadt 6-1 Lübeck in the Germany - 3rd Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Lübeck?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 50%, draw 27%, Lübeck 23%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ingolstadt) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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