MTK Budapest 1-3 Puskas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 11 May 2024

MTK Budapest
1-3 HT 1-3
Puskas FC
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2023/2024

MTK Budapest vs Puskas FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
5.09
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
47%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
33%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.25 — our 33% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
37%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
16%
+11.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
47%
Away Win
64%
-16.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MTK Budapest v Puskas FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 69%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.27/2.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/0.09
-19% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +127%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 82%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
11.6 Crosses 35.0
1.6 Yellow Cards –

MTK Budapest vs Puskas FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Puskas FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.10 xG 2.46
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
388 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.02.2024 Puskas FC Puskas FC 6-1 HT 3-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
22.10.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-5 HT 0-2 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
04.05.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
12.02.2022 Puskas FC Puskas FC 1-2 HT 0-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
15.10.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-1 HT 0-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
18.04.2021 Puskas FC Puskas FC 3-0 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC

MTK Budapest 1-3 Puskas FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
1-3
AWAY Puskas FC
1.53 xG 1.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
447 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Puskas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puskas FC saw off MTK Budapest 3-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Puskas FC as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 60% of the ball to Puskas FC's 40%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.53 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puskas FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.67 for Puskas FC.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Puskas FC?

MTK Budapest 1-3 Puskas FC in the Hungary - NB I on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Puskas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Puskas FC win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 28%, draw 25%, Puskas FC 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puskas FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Puskas FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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