Mlada Boleslav 2-3 Dukla Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 28% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mlada Boleslav EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Dukla Prag EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.32/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.38
-24% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +121%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.2 Crosses 19.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mlada Boleslav
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dukla Prag
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.02 xG 1.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
348 Passes 265
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 0-1 HT 0-0 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag ÇEK
14.01.2025 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 5-2 HT 3-1 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag HAZ
02.11.2024 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag 0-1 HT 0-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
21.04.2019 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag 2-2 HT 0-1 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
09.11.2018 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 0-0 HT 0-0 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag ÇEK
19.05.2018 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 1-0 HT 1-0 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mlada Boleslav
2-3
AWAY Dukla Prag
0.51 xG 2.14
60% Ball Possession 40%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
445 Passes 277
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dukla Prag edged past Mlada Boleslav 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Dukla Prag found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mlada Boleslav had 60% of the ball to Dukla Prag's 40%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.51 to 2.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dukla Prag's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mlada Boleslav had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.83 for Dukla Prag.

What was the final score of Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Prag?

Mlada Boleslav 2-3 Dukla Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mlada Boleslav 40%, draw 27%, Dukla Prag 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mlada Boleslav) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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