Napoli 2-2 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 May 2025

Napoli
2-2 HT 1-1
Genoa
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.3
Draw
29%
4.62
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
55%
2.0
Over
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.24
No Pick
58%
1.57
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.6
2-3
39%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.23
6+
9%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.6 — our 31% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.54
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
21.8
X/1
14%
3.69
X/2
8%
19.6
X/X
19%
6.74
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
6%
18.45
2/X
5%
26.0
Value flag · X/X at 6.74 — our 19% vs market 10.9%. Landed.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa The Market 14%
-6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.86/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.72
-11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +13%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
439 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
21.4 Crosses 14.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Genoa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.53 xG 0.85
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
533 Passes 238
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
17.02.2024 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
16.09.2023 Genoa Genoa 2-2 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
15.05.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
29.08.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
06.02.2021 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 2-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-2
AWAY Genoa
1.70 xG 0.59
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
433 Passes 270
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Napoli vs Genoa
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Napoli and Genoa finished all square at 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

A gentle 52% lean on Napoli didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. The market had leaned harder still (1.30, ~77%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) never looked like landing.

On the day, Napoli had 59% of the ball to Genoa's 41%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.70 to 0.59.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Napoli and 1.17 for Genoa.

Napoli vs Genoa Result & Final Score

Napoli 2-2 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Napoli vs Genoa Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Napoli 52%, draw 29%, Genoa 19%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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