Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 May 2025

Bayer Leverkusen
2-4 HT 1-2
Borussia Dortmund
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.43
No
43%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.33
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.53
1/2
9%
23.3
1/X
10%
12.3
X/1
12%
6.23
X/2
10%
6.21
X/X
10%
5.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.3
2/2
16%
3.5
2/X
5%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+1.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
66%
-8.8pp
43%
BTTS No
34%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -21%
1.63/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.97
+29% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
14.6 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.72 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
395 Passes 409
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.01.2025 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
29.01.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
06.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.02.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-5 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-4
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.20 xG 1.16
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 0
538 Passes 304
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 13
36 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund got the better of Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Borussia Dortmund made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 62% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 38%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.20 to 1.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bayer Leverkusen.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 40%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 36%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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