Quilmes 1-1 Patronato — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
Over 2.5
37%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.33
No
61%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
39%
-0.0pp
61%
BTTS No
61%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quilmes EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Patronato EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -15%
1.40/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.34
+17% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 212 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quilmes
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Patronato
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
303 Passes 138
73% Pass Accuracy 54%
34 Box Touches 8
55 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
09.09.2024 Patronato Patronato 1-1 HT 1-0 Quilmes Quilmes ARJPBN
23.04.2024 Quilmes Quilmes 2-2 HT 0-1 Patronato Patronato ARJPBN
06.06.2017 Quilmes Quilmes 0-1 HT 0-1 Patronato Patronato ARJ
23.02.2016 Quilmes Quilmes 2-2 HT 1-0 Patronato Patronato ARJ
POST-MATCH Quilmes vs Patronato
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Quilmes and Patronato couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Quilmes at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Patronato led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Quilmes and 1.50 for Patronato.

What was the final score of Quilmes vs Patronato?

Quilmes 1-1 Patronato in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quilmes vs Patronato?

Before kick-off our model rated a Quilmes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Quilmes 48%, draw 28%, Patronato 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Quilmes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Quilmes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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