AGF Aarhus 1-3 Randers FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.65
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.9
X/1
15%
5.58
X/2
12%
6.05
X/X
14%
4.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
2/2
11%
4.14
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
38%
+4.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Randers FC EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.57/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.09
+11% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +40%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
22.0 Crosses 22.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Randers FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.49 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
318 Passes 333
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.04.2025 Randers FC Randers FC 3-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
28.02.2025 Randers FC Randers FC 1-1 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
28.09.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
30.10.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-1 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
24.09.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
30.05.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-3
AWAY Randers FC
1.62 xG 1.11
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
330 Passes 350
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Randers FC beat AGF Aarhus 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 48% of the ball to Randers FC's 52%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.62 to 1.11 — the balance of chances actually favoured AGF Aarhus.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.50 for Randers FC.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC?

AGF Aarhus 1-3 Randers FC in the Denmark - Süperlig on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 43%, draw 28%, Randers FC 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AGF Aarhus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ BTTS Yes
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