Randers FC 3-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
33%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
18.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.36
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
12%
6.11
X/2
14%
5.34
X/X
17%
4.34
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
13%
3.56
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.6pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Randers FC EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 42%
-4% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.42/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.94
-2% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +67%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
274 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 73%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
21.7 Crosses 21.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Randers FC
0W-4D-2L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.64 xG 1.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
325 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2025 Randers FC Randers FC 1-1 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
28.09.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
30.10.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-1 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
24.09.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
30.05.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.04.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Randers FC
3-1
AWAY AGF Aarhus
2.09 xG 1.58
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
363 Passes 362
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Randers FC saw off AGF Aarhus 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; Randers FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Randers FC had 49% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 51%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 2.09 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Randers FC and 1.67 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus?

Randers FC 3-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Randers FC win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Randers FC 35%, draw 32%, AGF Aarhus 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Randers FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Randers FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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