Gyeongju HNP 1-1 Paju Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K3 League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
19%
Away Win
19%
+0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.5pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gyeongju HNP EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Paju Citizen EU Bookmakers 22%
-9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.39/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.47
-17% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gyeongju HNP
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Paju Citizen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
4 Corners 5
23.03.2025 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 4-1 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GKOK
29.06.2024 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 1-1 HT 1-0 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
02.03.2024 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 1-0 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
27.08.2023 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 1-1 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
29.04.2023 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 4-0 HT 1-0 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
25.09.2022 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 2-1 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
POST-MATCH Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gyeongju HNP and Paju Citizen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Gyeongju HNP at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gyeongju HNP had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gyeongju HNP and 1.33 for Paju Citizen.

What was the final score of Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen?

Gyeongju HNP 1-1 Paju Citizen in the South Kore - K3 League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gyeongju HNP win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gyeongju HNP 52%, draw 29%, Paju Citizen 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gyeongju HNP), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gyeongju HNP) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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