Gyeongju HNP 4-1 Paju Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.6pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gyeongju HNP EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Paju Citizen EU Bookmakers 27%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gyeongju HNP
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Paju Citizen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
4 Corners 5
29.06.2024 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 1-1 HT 1-0 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
02.03.2024 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 1-0 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
27.08.2023 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 1-1 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
29.04.2023 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 4-0 HT 1-0 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
25.09.2022 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 2-1 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
21.05.2022 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 2-1 HT 0-0 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
POST-MATCH Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gyeongju HNP swept aside Paju Citizen 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gyeongju HNP as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gyeongju HNP and 1.50 for Paju Citizen.

What was the final score of Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen?

Gyeongju HNP 4-1 Paju Citizen in the South Kore - K League Classic on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gyeongju HNP win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gyeongju HNP 47%, draw 27%, Paju Citizen 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gyeongju HNP) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gyeongju HNP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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