Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒07:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.57
6+ Goals
10%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.65
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.1
X/1
14%
5.75
X/2
15%
5.07
X/X
15%
3.64
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
22%
3.85
2/X
5%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.4pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +12%
1.28/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/0.65
+20% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +38%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 74%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
15.9 Crosses 19.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-2 HT 1-2 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
21.05.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 1-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
2-2
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.88 xG 1.08
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
475 Passes 266
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse and Machida Zelvia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 61% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 39%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.88 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 2.00 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 30%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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