Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 May 2025

Cerezo Osaka
1-0 HT 1-0
Yokohama F. Marinos
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.0
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
18%
5.36
X/2
10%
6.91
X/X
11%
5.53
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
15%
4.44
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cerezo Osaka v Yokohama F. Marinos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -14%
1.41/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.56
-6% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -30%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
21.3 Crosses 18.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.5

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.97 xG 1.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
275 Passes 497
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 4-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
27.04.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
12.11.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
01.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 2-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
10.07.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
19.02.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.58 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 12
460 Passes 427
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 51% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 49%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.58 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 2.17 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 42%, draw 26%, Yokohama F. Marinos 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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