Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Monterrey
MEK
2-1
HT 2-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 2-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca squeezed past Monterrey 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Toluca had 34% of the ball to Monterrey's 66%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.69 to 0.68.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Monterrey.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca 2-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Toluca 49%, draw 26%, Monterrey 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — a clean sweep of the main markets.