Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Monterrey
MEK
2-1
HT 2-0
Toluca
MEK
1-1
HT 1-0
Monterrey
MEK
2-2
HT 1-2
Monterrey
MEK
Toluca 1-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca and Monterrey shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.
On the day, Toluca had 43% of the ball to Monterrey's 57%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.43 to 0.86.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Monterrey.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca 1-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Toluca 51%, draw 27%, Monterrey 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 went the other way.