Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toluca v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 1-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca and Monterrey couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.
Our model won't enjoy this one — Toluca at 56% was the clear read, and the result ignored it. Over a season these leads pay; on a single Tuesday, anything can happen. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.
By the numbers, Monterrey saw more of the ball, 57% to 43%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.43 to 0.86.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Toluca against 1.00 for Monterrey.
Toluca vs Monterrey Result & Final Score
Toluca 1 - 1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Toluca 56%, draw 24%, Monterrey 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 went the other way.