Atlas 1-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Jan 2025

Atlas
1-2 HT 0-0
Leon
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Atlas vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.49
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
22.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
1.27/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.30
-13% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.2 Crosses 15.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Atlas vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Leon
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.18 xG 1.42
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.10.2024 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
19.02.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
25.10.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.03.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
29.08.2022 Leon Leon 4-2 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
20.01.2022 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK

Atlas 1-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-2
AWAY Leon
0.68 xG 1.29
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
368 Passes 310
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon nicked a narrow win over Atlas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Leon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atlas had 53% of the ball to Leon's 47%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.68 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atlas and 1.33 for Leon.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Leon?

Atlas 1-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atlas 38%, draw 28%, Leon 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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