Tondela 1-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
43%
-8.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.57/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.37
-4% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +97%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.4 Crosses 15.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Alverca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.72 xG 0.77
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
254 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.01.2025 Alverca Alverca 1-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
1-2
AWAY Alverca
2.01 xG 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
307 Passes 235
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
41 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca edged past Tondela 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Alverca made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tondela had 52% of the ball to Alverca's 48%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.01 to 0.67 — the balance of chances actually favoured Tondela.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Alverca?

Tondela 1-2 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Tondela 35%, draw 30%, Alverca 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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