Benfica II vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Benfica II v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Benfica II vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
0-3
HT 0-2
Benfica II
POR2
1-2
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
Benfica II 1-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica II and Penafiel shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Benfica II at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Benfica II had 65% of the ball to Penafiel's 35%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.25 to 0.35.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Benfica II and 0.50 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Benfica II vs Penafiel?
Benfica II 1-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Benfica II vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Benfica II 57%, draw 23%, Penafiel 20%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.