Estrela 0-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2025

Estrela
0-1 HT 0-0
AVS
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.38
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.84
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.3
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
13%
4.81
X/2
15%
6.54
X/X
16%
3.87
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
9%
5.27
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.9pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.25/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.27
+8% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.6 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-1D-0L
AWAY AVS
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.20 xG 1.27
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
180 Passes 301
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.12.2024 AVS AVS 1-1 HT 0-1 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-1
AWAY AVS
0.89 xG 1.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
192 Passes 197
64% Pass Accuracy 67%
23 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS edged past Estrela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Estrela had 49% of the ball to AVS's 51%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.89 to 1.44.

What was the final score of Estrela vs AVS?

Estrela 0-1 AVS in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estrela 41%, draw 29%, AVS 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Estrela) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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