Moreirense 2-2 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 33% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
38%
-4.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.28/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.25
+9% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.4 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Estoril
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.27 xG 1.05
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
261 Passes 398
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.12.2024 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 2-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
18.05.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
13.01.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-3 HT 0-2 Moreirense Moreirense POR
07.05.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
29.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
28.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-2
AWAY Estoril
1.52 xG 1.53
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
203 Passes 359
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense and Estoril couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Moreirense had 38% of the ball to Estoril's 62%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.52 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Moreirense and 0.83 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Estoril?

Moreirense 2-2 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 34%, draw 29%, Estoril 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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