Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 32% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.94
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
17.0
X/1
22%
3.87
X/2
8%
11.9
X/X
12%
5.34
2/1
9%
24.65
2/2
10%
10.5
2/X
7%
19.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.58/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.46
+3% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +20%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
24.1 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Farense
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.68 xG 1.22
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
377 Passes 211
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
33 Box Touches 13
29 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.12.2024 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
13.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
02.12.2023 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
06.05.2021 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR
17.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-2
AWAY Farense
2.48 xG 1.57
70% Ball Possession 30%
21 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
16 Corners 3
464 Passes 162
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
39 Box Touches 10
52 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 70% of the ball to Farense's 30%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.48 to 1.57 — on chances, Vitoria Guimaraes could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.67 for Farense.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 51%, draw 26%, Farense 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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