Domzale 2-0 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.1
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
14.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.5 — our 27% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Domzale EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 34%
-14% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.14/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.08
-15% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Domzale
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Nafta
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.03.2025 Nafta Nafta 3-2 HT 2-1 Domzale Domzale SLVN
23.11.2024 Domzale Domzale 2-1 HT 0-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
30.08.2024 Nafta Nafta 5-2 HT 2-2 Domzale Domzale SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Domzale
2-0
AWAY Nafta
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Domzale vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Domzale got the better of Nafta 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Domzale as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Domzale had 45% of the ball to Nafta's 55%, shots finished 6-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nafta led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Domzale and 3.00 for Nafta.

What was the final score of Domzale vs Nafta?

Domzale 2-0 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Domzale vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Domzale win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Domzale 44%, draw 29%, Nafta 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Domzale) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Domzale) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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11 May 2025
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