Al Shabab Riyadh 3-1 Al Ahli Jeddah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.53
No
54%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.37
2-3 Goals
44%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.37 — our 23% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
61%
-14.8pp
54%
BTTS No
39%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -15%
0.93/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.18
-14% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
14.3 Crosses 21.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.12 xG 2.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 336
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2025 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 HT 2-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
11.05.2024 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
25.11.2023 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
27.06.2022 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
21.02.2022 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SAKK
01.01.2022 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 3-4 HT 2-2 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh
3-1
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
2.16 xG 1.32
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
318 Passes 310
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 27
8 Crosses 26
7 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shabab Riyadh got the better of Al Ahli Jeddah 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahli Jeddah at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Al Shabab Riyadh had 49% of the ball to Al Ahli Jeddah's 51%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 2.16 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Shabab Riyadh and 1.50 for Al Ahli Jeddah.

What was the final score of Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Al Shabab Riyadh 3-1 Al Ahli Jeddah in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Al Shabab Riyadh 32%, draw 25%, Al Ahli Jeddah 43%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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