Azerbaycan 3-2 Kazakistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 11 Jun 2024

Azerbaycan
3-2 HT 1-2
Kazakistan
📅11/06/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Azerbaycan vs Kazakistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.62
Over 2.5
34%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.9
No
63%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.56
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.6
6+ Goals
6%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 42% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
58%
+8.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
42%
-8.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
49%
-11.7pp
63%
BTTS No
51%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Azerbaycan v Kazakistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kazakistan EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.41/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.82
-9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Azerbaycan vs Kazakistan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Azerbaycan
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kazakistan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.49 xG 0.16
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
485 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 5
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.09.2022 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 3-0 HT 0-0 Kazakistan Kazakistan AVUL
03.06.2022 Kazakistan Kazakistan 2-0 HT 0-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVUL
05.06.2018 Kazakistan Kazakistan 3-0 HT 2-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan HAZ
26.03.2016 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 0-1 HT 0-1 Kazakistan Kazakistan HAZ
06.09.2011 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 3-2 HT 0-1 Kazakistan Kazakistan AVR
03.06.2011 Kazakistan Kazakistan 2-1 HT 0-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVR

Azerbaycan 3-2 Kazakistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Azerbaycan
3-2
AWAY Kazakistan
56% Ball Possession 44%
25 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Azerbaycan vs Kazakistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Azerbaycan nicked a narrow win over Kazakistan 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Azerbaycan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Azerbaycan had 56% of the ball to Kazakistan's 44%, shots finished 25-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kazakistan led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Azerbaycan and 1.67 for Kazakistan.

What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs Kazakistan?

Azerbaycan 3-2 Kazakistan in the Friendlies on 11/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs Kazakistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Azerbaycan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 40%, draw 30%, Kazakistan 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Azerbaycan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Azerbaycan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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