Hırvatistan U21 2-5 İsveç U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 11 Jun 2024

📅11/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.17
6+ Goals
7%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 32% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.8pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hırvatistan U21 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY İsveç U21 EU Bookmakers 37%
-61% / -61% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
3.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.13
+94% / -70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 486 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hırvatistan U21
0W-1D-1L
AWAY İsveç U21
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 6
10.10.2016 İsveç U21 İsveç U21 4-2 HT 1-1 Hırvatistan U21 Hırvatistan U21 U21
01.09.2016 Hırvatistan U21 Hırvatistan U21 1-1 HT 0-0 İsveç U21 İsveç U21 U21
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hırvatistan U21
2-5
AWAY İsveç U21
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hırvatistan U21 vs İsveç U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsveç U21 swept aside Hırvatistan U21 5-2 away from home. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hırvatistan U21 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hırvatistan U21 had 45% of the ball to İsveç U21's 55%, shots finished 14-16.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, İsveç U21 led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hırvatistan U21 and 2.50 for İsveç U21.

What was the final score of Hırvatistan U21 vs İsveç U21?

Hırvatistan U21 2-5 İsveç U21 in the Friendlies on 11/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hırvatistan U21 vs İsveç U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hırvatistan U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hırvatistan U21 41%, draw 30%, İsveç U21 29%. The final score 2-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hırvatistan U21) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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