Aktobe 0-1 FK Sarajevo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 11 Jul 2024

📅11/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
56%
-13.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
19%
+12.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.1pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aktobe EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Sarajevo EU Bookmakers 22%
-76% / -76% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-42% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
371 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aktobe
0-1
AWAY FK Sarajevo
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aktobe vs FK Sarajevo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Sarajevo edged past Aktobe 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aktobe at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Aktobe had 62% of the ball to FK Sarajevo's 38%, shots finished 15-8.

What was the final score of Aktobe vs FK Sarajevo?

Aktobe 0-1 FK Sarajevo in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 11/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aktobe vs FK Sarajevo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aktobe win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aktobe 43%, draw 26%, FK Sarajevo 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aktobe), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aktobe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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